Musk’s Starlink and Starshield satellite services supports SpaceX’s

Musk claims humans could be on Mars in four years, sparking both skepticism and support
Elon Musk, the head of SpaceX, recently made a bold statement amid his more controversial posts on his platform, X: He suggested that humans could land on Mars within four years and that a self-sustaining city could be established there in 20 years.

This ambitious claim has raised eyebrows, even for Musk, known for revolutionizing near-Earth space travel with his reusable Falcon rockets. While NASA, collaborating with SpaceX, sees a manned Mars landing as "audacious" by 2040, Musk’s timeline of four years seems optimistic. In 2016, Musk had similarly claimed crewed missions could occur within six years, despite the necessary heavy rockets still being in the concept phase.

While some dismiss his latest statement as bravado—especially after his earlier remarks about helping populate extraterrestrial civilizations with his own DNA—others see a deeper purpose. Analysts suggest that while building a million-person colony on Mars within two decades may be unrealistic, regular space shuttle flights aboard SpaceX’s Starship rockets, carrying cargo and astronauts, could soon be a reality.

Though Musk’s estimated $250 billion fortune won’t cover the full cost of such an ambitious project—surpassing NASA’s $280 billion Apollo program—many believe that both private and public investors could be inspired by this vision.

Experts argue that Musk’s tweet highlights SpaceX’s ongoing drive to innovate. According to Harvard Business School’s Matthew Weinzierl, the Mars vision serves to attract talent, investment, and determination to SpaceX. “It’s not just about space travel,” he said. “It’s about redefining humanity’s future, making previously impossible goals achievable.”

While revenue from Musk’s Starlink and Starshield satellite services supports SpaceX’s broader goals, the reusable model of SpaceX rockets could also be applied to Mars missions. “Starship’s flight costs are impressively low—around $10 million per flight,” Weinzierl said. He believes SpaceX could fund these ventures independently, though larger-scale Mars colonization remains uncertain.

The technical challenges also loom large. Starship, having flown only four test flights so far, has experienced failures, and a refueling spacecraft is still needed to support Mars-bound missions. Despite these hurdles, Robert Zubrin, president of The Mars Society, believes Musk’s timeline may be too optimistic but agrees that SpaceX is making significant strides. “2028 is more realistic,” Zubrin says, although proper infrastructure on Mars will still be needed.

Though Musk’s attention is divided across various ventures, experts are confident SpaceX will continue to progress toward his Mars vision, even if the timeline shifts. “Musk exaggerates both in what he’ll do and when, but he accomplishes much,” Zubrin noted.

Weinzierl added that SpaceX’s culture and ability to attract talent ensure the company’s future success, even if Musk steps back from day-to-day operations. “The culture is embedded in the firm—it’s no longer dependent solely on Musk,” he concluded.